Recent industrial production numbers confirm that industrial growth is on track.
Certain changes in the past two or three years could have a long-term structural impact on the IT services market.
As temperatures shoot up this month signalling an early onset of summer, sales of air conditioners (AC) are set to increase, with companies expected to hike the prices of ACs by 4-5 per cent due to component shortages. Leading players like Haier and Bluestar and suppliers like EPack Durables have raised their production capacities to meet the 25-30 per cent rise in demand expected in the coming months.
Slow growth in key sectors would also have implications on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) number as these segments account for about 41 per cent to the total factory output.
India's Index of Industrial Production -- which measures industrial growth -- plunged to a dismal 1.6 per cent in December 2010 from 18 per cent in the same period a year ago due to the poor performance of the manufacturing sector.
A majority of CEOs from top Indian companies including ICICI Bank, Bajaj Auto, TVS Motor GE India, and HUL, do not foresee any production slowdown in this fiscal, even as rising input and interest costs are affecting the net profit margins, a CII survey has found.
The time is ideal for a 'Dream Budget' akin to the 1991 reforms that sparked high growth and unlocked significant gains in productivity, points out Rajeswari Sengupta.
Global rating agency Moody's on Monday raised India's growth forecast for 2024 calendar year to 6.8 per cent, from 6.1 per cent estimated earlier, on the back of 'stronger-than-expected' economic data of 2023 and fading global economic headwinds. India's real GDP expanded 8.4 per cent year-over-year in the fourth quarter of calendar year 2023, resulting in a 7.7 per cent growth for full-year 2023. Capital spending by the government and strong manufacturing activity have meaningfully contributed to the robust growth outcomes in 2023, Moody's Investors Service said.
Amid better semiconductor chip supplies, the Indian automotive industry posted an 8 percent growth in production of vehicles across categories for the month of May, with three-wheelers (20 per cent) and passenger vehicles (16 per cent) leading the pack. Exports, however, dipped 21 per cent at an industry level. The industry also recorded its highest-ever May wholesales of domestic passenger vehicles (334,802 units), riding on high demand for sport utility vehicles (SUVs) and better supplies of semiconductor chips.
While slowdown was prominent in vehicle loan segment, home loans growth improved to 18.7% in May 2019 from 15.5% a year ago.
India's economy is showing signs of slowdown, with hi-frequency indicators like industrial output posting subdued growth and automobile sales touching historical lows.
What came to the rescue of the IIP numbers in February were mining and electricity.
The output of eight core infrastructure sectors contracted for the third month in a row by 1.3 per cent in December 2020, dragged down by poor show by crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel and cement sectors. The core sectors had expanded by 3.1 per cent in December 2019, according to the provisional data released by the Commerce and Industry Ministry on Friday. Barring coal and electricity, all sectors recorded negative growth in December 2020. During April-December 2020-21, the sectors' output declined by 10.1 per cent against a growth rate of 0.6 per cent in the same period of the previous year.
Fitch Ratings on Monday said India's steady GDP growth outlook, improved banking sector's financial health and expected interest-rate cuts in 2025 will support credit access for corporates in FY26.
Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai Motor India on Monday reported a dip in passenger vehicle dispatches to dealers in the domestic market last month as the companies tried to adjust vehicle inventory amid slowing demand. Maruti Suzuki India said it "calibrated supplies" to the dealers, aligning with the industry's retail sales projections amid India-Pakistan conflict and a dip in sales of entry-level cars.
Among the main industry segments, manufacturing activity declined to 5.9 per cent from 10.6 per cent a year ago.
Indian factory growth likely slowed in Jan, inflation to stay muted.
'India represents one of the top opportunities with robust growth, solid fundamentals, and openness to foreign investment.'
While this will incur a revenue loss amounting to 0.2 per cent of GDP, it will provide a strong boost to consumer sentiment and spending, points out Rajani Sinha.
Skoda Auto India, the Czech carmaker that has recently found success with its compact SUV Kylaq, says it remains committed to developing a fully localised electric vehicle (EV). The EV will be manufactured at its Chakan facility for both Indian market and exports.
Shares of auto component major, Samvardhana Motherson International, has gained 11.5 per cent on the bourses after the company approved the qualified institutions placement (QIP) issue and announced the calculation methodology for its compulsorily convertible debentures, or CCDs, into equity shares. Analysts cite strong investor response to the issue that has kept the sentiment positive for the stock. Brokerages, however, have a mixed view on the outlook for the auto parts supplier.
'As more and more work becomes automated and a range of lower-level and higher-level tasks are replaced by AI, the need for a classic command-and-control pyramid structure goes away.'
Demand for fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) fell in April owing to lower stocking by kiranas, according to the data from Bizom. Kiranas stocked lower quantities in April as they resorted to heavy stocking in March. Sales in value terms were down 8.4 per cent in the month as against the same period last year while on a month-on-month basis, they declined 17 per cent.
'For 40 years, India valued only technical skills. IITs, coding -- that became everything.' 'Soft skills were sidelined. But those are the skills that will keep you employable now, not technical skills.'
After lagging behind the broader market over the past three and six months, defence sector stocks have regained ground, reversing their performance from the past month. Concerns about slowing order inflows, execution hurdles, supply chain disruptions, and high valuations had weighed on the sector.
'Could the impending new crisis, vibe coding, similarly create not a disaster like what befell Indian handlooms during the Industrial Revolution but another opportunity like what the Y2K crisis created?' asks Ajit Balakrishnan.
If growth reverts to the pre-Covid level, a lot of people may have to temper their rosy optimism, points out Debashis Basu.
From the 30-share blue-chip pack, Zomato cracked nearly 7 per cent. Power Grid, Adani Ports, Tata Steel, NTPC, Tata Motors, Tech Mahindra, Mahindra & Mahindra, Asian Paints, Sun Pharma and UltraTech Cement were the other major laggards. In contrast, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Consultancy Services and IndusInd Bank were the gainers.
Rating agencies Crisil and Icra on Monday revised down their India growth projections for the current fiscal and the second quarter mainly due to the ripple effect of slowdown in global growth and mixed crop output. Crisil downgraded the India growth forecast by 30 bps to 7 per cent while Icra pegged the economic expansion at 6.5 per cent for the second quarter of FY2022-23. "We have revised down our forecast for real gross domestic product growth to 7 per cent for fiscal 2023 from 7.3 per cent, primarily because of the slowdown in global growth that has started to impact our exports and industrial activity.
The profitability of industry is under stress and needs to be addressed by encouraging investments in the supply side infrastructure.
Brokerages expect a further slowdown in Indian firms' revenue and earnings growth in Q4FY25, following low single-digit growth in the preceding three quarters, as factors like weak consumer demand and credit growth linger on.
The FMCG industry hopes for a revival in consumption growth in 2025 with some 'green shoots' already visible, after having a challenging year amid escalating input costs and a double-digit rise in food inflation, which ultimately slowed down the pace of the urban market growth in the second half of 2024. Soaring prices of commodities such as palm oil, coffee, cocoa and wheat forced FMCG players to go for a hike of 3 to 5 per cent or resort to shrinkflation by reducing pack sizes and grammage to retain attractive price points, fearing a volume loss.
'In the past six months, capital markets have seen a dip, and realty is struggling. The stock-market investor will be cautious of putting that investment in real estate when there may be a slowdown coming.'
The Rs 85,000 crore (Rs 850 billion) domestic cement industry is fast realising the painful situation it is getting into, as the GDP growth rate is on a slippery path and over 70 million tonnes of fresh capacities are in the pipeline in the next two years.
Slow growth in the key sectors would have implications on the IIP number as these segments account for about 41 per cent of the total factory output.
'In terms of semiconductors, challenges do remain in the pan industry, but I think we are much better than where we were a year or so back.'
"These latest so-called 'Liberation Day' tariffs are reckless and self-destructive, inflicting financial pain on Illinois at a time when people are already struggling to keep their small businesses afloat and put food on the table."
After falling 17 per cent since the start of the year to its March lows, the stock of the country's largest pharmaceutical (pharma) company, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, has clawed back nearly half of those losses. Recent acquisitions, a favourable court ruling in the case of the hair loss drug Leqselvi, an edge over peers owing to its specialty portfolio, and a diversified global presence have supported the recovery.
Growth in corporate profits needs to be commensurate with wages to boost the economy, Economic Survey 2024-25 said, noting that sharp disparities between the two pose risk to the economy by curbing demand. The document tabled in Parliament on Friday noted that while the labour share of GVA (gross value added) shows a slight uptick, the disproportionate rise in corporate profitsredominantly among large firmsaises concerns about income inequality.
'Entering India is exciting, but it's also challenging. You have to be prepared for long-term investment.'
